Who will win the PGA? Who knows?

It is a tradition at the PGA Championship, which is under way this weekend at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., to have the winners of the year’s first three major golf tournaments play together in a threesome for the first two rounds.

Typically, this matchup of the year’s Masters, U.S. Open and British Open champions turns out to be the grouping that draws the big galleries on Thursday and Friday. There is almost always a golf superstar involved, and oftentimes there are three.

In the past, spectators have seen such illustrious groupings as Gary Player, Gene Littler and Arnold Palmer (1961); or Jack Nicklaus, Raymond Floyd and Greg Norman (1986). More recently, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els and Justin Leonard made a nice trio for the first two days at the PGA Championship in 1997.

So who are the fans at Oak Hill watching right now? That would be Mike Weir, Jim Furyk and Ben Curtis. Not exactly a clash of titans.

This year, it’s likely that the large-gallery rule of thumb will not be in effect.

Sure, plenty of people will want to see Curtis, the golf oddity who no one had heard of before his astonishing British Open win, and Rochester is close enough to Canada that Weir could draw a few hosers down to the tournament. But let’s face it, Weir, Furyk and Curtis have less star power than Woods’ stuffed-tiger head cover. You know, the one from the ads on TV.

Woods himself, the 1999 and 2000 PGA champion, will be in a threesome with the two other most recent winners of the tournament, David Toms (2001) and Rich Beem, the defending champion. It’s conceivable, but unlikely, that their lack of star power could actually repel some of Tiger’s fans.

There’s a lesson to be learned in seeing some of the nondescript names above, however.

In 2000, Tiger rampaged through the world of golf, winning the U.S. and British opens and the PGA Championship. Only Vijay Singh’s victory in the Masters kept Woods from winning the grand slam.

In essence, a challenge was issued to the rest of the tour pros to either elevate their games or risk being afterthoughts during the reign of Tiger. In winning majors since 2000, Beem, Toms, Curtis, Furyk and Weir have shown that the challenge has been met.

It’s funny to hear people talking about Tiger being in a slump just because he hasn’t won a major since the 2002 U.S. Open. He’s still won four tournaments this year, and he’s still the top-ranked golfer in the world. I’d love to have a slump like that.

Tiger’s major drought is not a result of poor play on Woods’ part. The real reason for his so-called slump is that the rest of the golfers have improved their play. They haven’t entirely collared Tiger yet, but they’re getting closer.

I cautioned folks in this column some time ago to remember the PGA’s motto: These guys are good. Those guys are good, all of them, or else they wouldn’t be on the PGA Tour. And they’ve all gotten better in an effort to keep up with Woods.

So who’s going to win the PGA Championship this year? Well, in a year like this, when first-time major winners are the theme, who could possibly guess? In addition, the PGA, for some reason, tends to produce more surprise winners than the other three majors.

First-time winners in the Masters tend to be established pros like Mark O’Meara (1998) or Fred Couples (1992), who are having strong seasons. First-timers in the U.S. Open are often guys like Tom Kite (1992) or Corey Pavin (1995), who’ve been knocking on the door at the majors for a long time and finally break through.

The PGA gives to guys we’ve never heard of before and guys who never won anything else: Beem, Toms, Mark Brooks (1996), Steve Elkington (’95), Wayne Grady (’90), Jeff Sluman (’88), Bob Tway (’86).

With such a chaotic history, the PGA is the bane of bettors everywhere, and for obvious reasons picking a winner is a difficult task, but I’m going to take a shot anyway.

In this oddest of golf years, when seemingly anyone can win a major, the 300th-ranked golfer in the world, Curtis, won the British Open, and a Canadian lefty, Weir, won the Masters. Apparently anything can happen.

So if anything can happen and lefties and first-time major winners are a theme, then I think we can prepare ourselves for the oddest of all occurrences: Phil Mickelson might finally win a major.

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